It was estimated that satellite parties for proportional representation of the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea and the Future United Party would draw with 16 seats each, reflecting the results of the recent polls in the April 15 general elections.
The Yonhap News Agency calculated the expected number 부산달리기 of seats for each party that will field proportional representation candidates in the upcoming general elections based on the results of a survey of the party's intention to vote on proportional representation, which was released by Realmeter on Wednesday.
According to a survey conducted by Realmeter on 1,518 voters aged 18 or older by TBS from July 23-25, 28.9 percent of the respondents said they would vote for the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea.
The following are 28.0 percent for the Future Korea Party, 11.6 percent for the Open Democratic Party, 5.4 percent for the People's Party, 4.9 percent for the People's Party, 2.7 percent for the Pro-Park New Party, 2.4 percent for the People's Party, 2.0 percent for the Republican People's Party, 1.3 percent for the People's Party, 2.4 percent for the People's Party and 10.5 percent for independents.
Assuming that the intention of this vote is reflected in the party vote and other parties and independents are corrected by political parties, the expected proportional seats are 16 for citizens, 16 for Mirae Korea, seven for open democracy, three for the Justice Party, three for the People's Party, one for the pro-Park New Party and zero to one for the People's livelihood party.
Of the 47 proportional seats up for grabs, liberal parties such as the Citizens' Party, the Open Democratic Party and the Justice Party have a majority with 26.
If the party secures 16 seats, only six of the 20 proportional representation candidates from the Democratic Party, from Choi Hye-young, a professor at Kang Dong-dae, to Jeon Yong-ki, former chairman of the party's National University Student Committee, will survive. The party should draw more votes from the Open Democratic Party or Justice Party, which has overlapping supporters.
Future Korea has the right to win the election, from Yoon Joo-kyung, former head of the Independence Hall of Korea, to Chung Un-cheon, the 16th former lawmaker.
Former presidential secretary for public discipline Choi Kang-wook (2), former Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom (4), and former Hanwha Investment & Securities CEO Joo Jin-hyung (6) can be elected, while Hwang Hee-seok (8) can be excluded from the list.
The Justice Party will include Ryu Ho-jung, the party's special chairman for IT industry and labor, Chang Hye-young, the party's special chairman for future politics, and Kang Eun-mi, former vice party leader. Originally, the Justice Party was considered the biggest beneficiary of the election law revision, but with the launch of a satellite party of the Citizens' Party and the United Party, worse results are expected than the four seats in the last general election.
The ruling party Secretary-General (2) and Ahn Cheol-soo and closest itaegyu gwoneunhui lawmakers can be elected (3).
The new method of allocating the seats in the upcoming general elections will be divided into two groups, with 30 of the 47 proportional representation seats reflecting only 50 percent of the party's votes cast, while the remaining 17 seats will be allocated in a separate format that reflects 100 percent of the votes cast.
The expected seats may vary little by little depending on how many seats the Justice Party, the Pro-Park New Party and the People's Party, which also submitted candidates for their constituencies, will win. The Citizens' Party, Future Korea, Open Democratic Party and People's Party assumed that there were no candidates for their constituencies at all, while the Justice Party and the New Pro-Park Party kept two seats and one, respectively, in their constituencies. The People's People's Party may not have any proportional seats if there are several district-elects.
The qualifications to win proportional representation seats were excluded from the allocation of seats, even after the correction of other parties and independents, as the party won more than 3 percent of the total number of valid votes or secured five or more seats in the district.